WEEKLY DATA
Grey Mkt
SUB Date 126610LNUS$16,684▲ +1.6%
Daytona 126500LNUS$37,592▼ −0.5%
GMT Pepsi 126710BLROUS$30,790▲ +3.1%
GMT Batman 126710BLNRUS$20,825▼ −0.8%
OP 41 Blue 124300US$14,592
Datejust 41 126334US$17,000▼ −0.3%
Sky-Dweller 326934US$24,364▼ −0.5%
Explorer II 226570US$13,486▼ −0.5%
RRGI Index1,055 pts▲ +0.72%
SUB Date 126610LNUS$16,684▲ +1.6%
Daytona 126500LNUS$37,592▼ −0.5%
GMT Pepsi 126710BLROUS$30,790▲ +3.1%
GMT Batman 126710BLNRUS$20,825▼ −0.8%
OP 41 Blue 124300US$14,592
Datejust 41 126334US$17,000▼ −0.3%
Sky-Dweller 326934US$24,364▼ −0.5%
Explorer II 226570US$13,486▼ −0.5%
RRGI Index1,055 pts▲ +0.72%
Grey Market Intelligence
Sunday, 30 August 2026
Methodology
Proprietary Research
RRGI Methodology

How the RolexRadar Grey Market Index is constructed — constituent selection, weighting, sampling rules, and calculation formula.

Methodology Summary
How the RRGI is Built Transparent
Base
1,000 points on 7 June 2026 (first live scan)
Constituents
8 Rolex references, weighted by secondary market liquidity and trading volume
Data Source
Chrono24
Sampling
10% trimmed median of all full-set, unworn/like-new steel listings per reference · minimum 5 qualifying listings required · global sanity bounds $3,500–$120,000
Currency
USD · converted at prevailing rate on update date
Updates
Every Sunday — aligned with the weekly price scan
Rebalancing
Annual review each January · splice factor applied on any change · no restatement of historical values
Index Formula
Calculation — Chain-Linked
RRGIt = RRGIt−1 × Σ (wᵢ × Pᵢ,t / Pᵢ,t−1)

Where:
 Pᵢ,t   = current week median price
 Pᵢ,t−1 = prior week median price
 wᵢ    = constituent weight
Constituent Weights
Reference Model Weight
126610LNSubmariner Date22%
126710BLROGMT-Master II Pepsi18%
126710BLNRGMT-Master II Batman15%
126500LNDaytona15%
124300Oyster Perpetual 4112%
126334Datejust 4110%
326934Sky-Dweller5%
226570Explorer II3%
Data Criteria
  • Steel case material only
  • Unworn or Like New (Chrono24 grade)
  • Full set preferred — box & papers; incomplete sets included only when full-set listings < 5
  • Minimum 5 qualifying listings per reference to compute
  • 10% trim applied to each end of sorted price list before taking median
  • Prices reflect asking prices, not confirmed transactions

Index values are subject to correction if a price snapshot is found to be contaminated post-publication. Corrected rows are logged in the index history.

Data Quality
Clean vs. Dirty Snapshots
Clean
Snapshot passed all guards: global sanity ($3,500–$120,000), per-reference bounds (derived dynamically from trailing 6-week median ×0.65/×1.35), week-over-week change ≤±30%, and minimum 5 qualifying listings. Clean snapshots are used in RRGI and signal computation.
Dirty
Snapshot rejected by one or more guards. Dirty rows are stored for audit but excluded from all index and signal calculations.
CF Block
When Cloudflare blocks the scraper for a reference, no snapshot is written for that week. The reference is absent from that week's RRGI calculation and its weight is redistributed proportionally to constituents with clean data.
Gap Bridging Policy
Geometric Interpolation for Missing Snapshots

When a reference has no clean snapshot for a given week (due to a Cloudflare block or scrape failure), the RRGI recompute layer applies geometric interpolation between the nearest clean anchors on either side of the gap.

P(t) = P(before) × (P(after) / P(before))^(k / n)
where k = position in gap, n = total gap length

Bridging applies to historical correction runs only — it does not affect the live ingest value for the blocked week. If no anchor exists on either side of the gap, the reference is omitted from that week's calculation and its weight redistributed. Bridge events are recorded in market_index.notes for auditability.

Correction Policy
Correct Rows, Not Footnotes

If an error in a published RRGI value is identified — whether from a contaminated snapshot, a data quality flag applied retrospectively, or a cascade from a corrected upstream base — the market_index row is patched directly with the corrected value. There are no parallel "footnoted" histories.

Audit Trail
The original value, correction date, delta, and cause are written to market_index.notes for every corrected row. No correction is silent — each patch is reported to site administration before deployment.
Jun 14 2026 Note
The June 14, 2026 RRGI was corrected on July 5, 2026. Two separate causes applied: (1) a 28.83 pt upward adjustment from applying the Oyster Perpetual 41 bridge (OP41 was blocked by Cloudflare on that date and its clean anchor prices were not used in the original live computation); (2) a 30.42 pt residual gap that cannot be reproduced from current database records — the original inputs were not preserved. The revised value (1,021.25 pts) is the best recomputable figure under current methodology. The irrecoverable portion is documented in the notes field of that row.
Aug 2 2026 Note
A definition drift introduced July 26, 2026 caused that week's and the following week's (August 2) grey-market range to be recorded as the true low/high of the trimmed listing set rather than a band around the median — the mid computed from it was the midrange of that range, not the trimmed median this page describes. July 26 was reverted to its independently-verified clean value (1,014.29 pts) on August 5, 2026. August 2's true medians cannot be recovered (per-listing data behind that week's read was not yet being persisted), so it currently has no published RRGI reading rather than a restated or spliced one — a genuine gap, consistent with the bridging policy above. It will be filled once the following week's ingest runs on the corrected median basis, using geometric interpolation between the July 26 and next-available anchors, and flagged on the history table like any other bridged row.
Aug 9 2026 Note — Base Week
The index base (1,000 pts, 7 June 2026) predates the data-quality guard system this page describes: the minimum-5-listings and per-reference-bounds guards could not run on week one — there was no trailing history to derive per-reference bounds from, and listing counts were not yet being captured at all. Under current methodology the base week would not qualify as a clean snapshot; it is grandfathered only because it was inserted before the guard system existed, not because it was evaluated and passed. A read-only model that excludes 7 June and rebases the chain to 14 June (first guard-eligible week) shows every published value from 14 June onward shifting by a near-constant −1.90% — e.g. 9 August 2026: 1,031.40 → 1,011.81 pts. The offset is flat, not compounding: only the first chain link (14 Jun/7 Jun) carries the error, so week-over-week changes, trends, and signals computed from this page's formula are unaffected by it. Decision: the base is not being rebased. The index level is arbitrary by declaration (1,000 pts, by construction) — rebasing would restate every already-published value, including two newsletters and social posts already distributed and not recallable, trading irreversible external inconsistency for a correction to a number that was arbitrary to begin with. This note is the audit trail for that decision; the full weekly model output is versioned in the site repository (model-rebase-14jun.mjs) so the analysis can be reproduced or revisited without redoing it.
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