Methodology — RolexRadar Grey Market Intelligence

Proprietary Research

RRGI Methodology

How the RolexRadar Grey Market Index is constructed — constituent selection, weighting, sampling rules, and calculation formula.

Methodology Summary

How the RRGI is Built Transparent

Base

1,000 points on 7 June 2026 (first live scan)

Constituents

8 Rolex references, weighted by secondary market liquidity and trading volume

Data Source

Chrono24

Sampling

10% trimmed median of all full-set, unworn/like-new steel listings per reference · minimum 5 qualifying listings required · global sanity bounds $3,500–$120,000

Currency

USD · converted at prevailing rate on update date

Updates

Every Sunday — aligned with the weekly price scan

Rebalancing

Annual review each January · splice factor applied on any change · no restatement of historical values

Index Formula

Calculation — Chain-Linked

RRGI_t = RRGI_t−1 × Σ (wᵢ × Pᵢ,t / Pᵢ,t−1)

Where:
Pᵢ,t = current week median price
Pᵢ,t−1 = prior week median price
wᵢ = constituent weight

Constituent Weights

Reference	Model	Weight
126610LN	Submariner Date	22%
126710BLRO	GMT-Master II Pepsi	18%
126710BLNR	GMT-Master II Batman	15%
126500LN	Daytona	15%
124300	Oyster Perpetual 41	12%
126334	Datejust 41	10%
326934	Sky-Dweller	5%
226570	Explorer II	3%

Data Criteria

Steel case material only
Unworn or Like New (Chrono24 grade)
Full set preferred — box & papers; incomplete sets included only when full-set listings < 5
Minimum 5 qualifying listings per reference to compute
10% trim applied to each end of sorted price list before taking median
Prices reflect asking prices, not confirmed transactions

Index values are subject to correction if a price snapshot is found to be contaminated post-publication. Corrected rows are logged in the index history.

Buy / Hold / Pass Signals

Signal Methodology

Eligibility

A reference must have ≥6 clean trailing weekly snapshots (current week excluded) AND have been successfully ingested on the signal date. References blocked by Cloudflare during the live scrape receive no signal for that week.

Rolling Baseline

Trailing premium average across up to 12 clean weekly snapshots (excluding the current week). Clean = passed all data quality guards. Premium = (grey mid − retail MSRP) / retail MSRP × 100.

Buy

Current premium is ≥8 percentage points below the trailing average. Example: trailing avg +62%, current +53% → Buy signal.

Pass

Current premium is ≥8 percentage points above the trailing average AND week-over-week price change is ≥+1%. Both conditions required to avoid false signals on stable high-premium references.

Hold

All other cases — premium within normal range or momentum conditions not met.

Exclusion

GMT-Master II Pepsi (126710BLRO) is permanently excluded from signal computation. Its retail MSRP entry is a proxy figure not trusted for premium mathematics. The site displays "—" for Pepsi premium and produces no signal.

First signals began 19 July 2026 (five eligible references). Oyster Perpetual 41 and Sky-Dweller became eligible 26 July 2026, subject to clean ingests on each of the two preceding Sundays.

Data Quality

Clean vs. Dirty Snapshots

Clean

Snapshot passed all guards: global sanity ($3,500–$120,000), per-reference bounds (derived dynamically from trailing 6-week median ×0.65/×1.35), week-over-week change ≤±30%, and minimum 5 qualifying listings. Clean snapshots are used in RRGI and signal computation.

Dirty

Snapshot rejected by one or more guards. Dirty rows are stored for audit but excluded from all index and signal calculations.

CF Block

When Cloudflare blocks the scraper for a reference, no snapshot is written for that week. The reference is absent from that week's RRGI calculation and its weight is redistributed proportionally to constituents with clean data.

Gap Bridging Policy

Geometric Interpolation for Missing Snapshots

When a reference has no clean snapshot for a given week (due to a Cloudflare block or scrape failure), the RRGI recompute layer applies geometric interpolation between the nearest clean anchors on either side of the gap.

      P(t) = P(before) × (P(after) / P(before))^(k / n)

      where k = position in gap, n = total gap length

Bridging applies to historical correction runs only — it does not affect the live ingest value for the blocked week. If no anchor exists on either side of the gap, the reference is omitted from that week's calculation and its weight redistributed. Bridge events are recorded in market_index.notes for auditability.

Correction Policy

Correct Rows, Not Footnotes

If an error in a published RRGI value is identified — whether from a contaminated snapshot, a data quality flag applied retrospectively, or a cascade from a corrected upstream base — the market_index row is patched directly with the corrected value. There are no parallel "footnoted" histories.

Audit Trail

The original value, correction date, delta, and cause are written to market_index.notes for every corrected row. No correction is silent — each patch is reported to site administration before deployment.

Jun 14 2026 Note

The June 14, 2026 RRGI was corrected on July 5, 2026. Two separate causes applied: (1) a 28.83 pt upward adjustment from applying the Oyster Perpetual 41 bridge (OP41 was blocked by Cloudflare on that date and its clean anchor prices were not used in the original live computation); (2) a 30.42 pt residual gap that cannot be reproduced from current database records — the original inputs were not preserved. The revised value (1,021.25 pts) is the best recomputable figure under current methodology. The irrecoverable portion is documented in the notes field of that row.